Financial Update

Well, I’m close to pulling the trigger on my Microsoft stock.  In at under 28.5/share – I was thinking Halo3 would boost it to $32, but with it hovering near 31$ I may take the profit.  I’m also happy to say that with the SP500 having snapped back in a big way, all of the buying I did in August looks smart now.  Of course I hold my index funds long-term, so I won’t be trading those.  Alas, I’m not perfect … my Etrade stock (ETFC) continues to get beat like a drunken sailor.  I thought it was cheap at $15/share and was buying.  Now its hovering at $10.5  -- well I stubbornly continue to believe that its undervalued (despite its disappointing earnings this last quarter and the charge its taking next quarter for exiting the wholesale mortgage business).  I believe a year from now the mortgage mess will be behind it and its forward price earning ratio will reflect its status as a strong growth company driven by its brokerage/diversified financial services offerings.  The latest quarter saw record growth in ETrades customer assets and ultimately Etrade makes a profit proportional to the amount of money people put in their banking/brokerage accounts.  Thus the two key metrics for evaluating Etrade’s long term earnings are 1. total customer assets and 2. the percentage of said assets that Etrade skims as profit (through banking fees, trading commissions, interest spread, etc.).  With strong growth in total assets and no reason to assume smaller profit margin on those assets (after the current credit-market/mortgage debacle subsides) it seems that ETFC has a bright future. 

 

Also, even though I think the stock will continue to under-perform in the short term (the next 4-6 months) I can’t bring myself to sell at a time when the sentiment for banking is so low … my fundamental trading precept is to sell when investor sentiment is exuberant and buy when sentiment is totally depressed.  So yes, I will be looking to add to my ETFC position.  I will be buying if ETFC sinks below 9.5.

  

Challenge to Scientific Consensus on Global Warming

Press Release:

"A new analysis of peer-reviewed literature reveals that more than 500 scientists have published evidence refuting at least one element of current man-made global warming scares. More than 300 of the scientists found evidence that 1) a natural moderate 1,500-year climate cycle has produced more than a dozen global warmings similar to ours since the last Ice Age and/or that 2) our Modern Warming is linked strongly to variations in the sun's irradiance."

I tire of reporting this stuff, simply because global-warming-alarmism is so obviously bunk, but many haven't seen the light yet, so ...

Weight Update

Well, its been a long while since I talked about my fitness/dieting progress. I'm happy to say that I've achieved my goal weight. I've held steady at around 160 lbs for about two or three months ... that's good considering this post, where you can perhaps follow the link to the google spreadsheet showing I weighed over 170 lbs in June of 2006.

Now the bad news ... I'm still not satisfied! I have adjusted my goal downwards ... I would now like to be at 155 lbs by next summer. Considering where I've been and where I'm going this should be relatively easy (lets face it, losing 5 pounds is a 2-week project, but keeping it off is sometimes a challenge) but time will tell.

I'll keep blogging this stuff because I feel like accountability to my readers (yes all nine of you) is a helpful motivation.

Financial Update

Well, as my post from last week suggests, I believe that the stock market will be kind to investors over the next 5 years. I continued buying all the way down, though I'm still slightly underwater when my buying over the last few weeks is averaged out. I did make a few short term trades that were profitable: I bought 600 shares ETFC, a brokerage/banking stock, for 13.20/share and sold a few days later for 15.85.

So what am i doing now? Well, i've put almost all of my cash into buying S&P500 index funds, buying down into the dip, so I don't have much more sail to put out. I'll be selling some small cap index funds in order to buy more ETFC tomorrow. That stock (at roughly 15 and 1/5 bucks per share) is cheap I tell you, cheap! If its worth a penny its worth 19 bucks a share. I'll be buying on dips and selling for a quick profit, if I can, for as long as ETFC stays below 19$.

I also bough some MSFT last week for 28.25/share. I'm expecting MSFT to get a bump over the next few months as HALO 3 hype machine goes into overdrive ... I'll sell for a quick profit at around 31$ if I can. If not I'll gladly hold it for the long haul.

Blogger Finds Y2K Bug in NASA Climate Data

DailyTech :

"NASA has now silently released corrected figures, and the changes are truly astounding. The warmest year on record is now 1934. 1998 (long trumpeted by the media as record-breaking) moves to second place. 1921 takes third. In fact, 5 of the 10 warmest years on record now all occur before World War II."

color me unsurprised. Somebody call Al Gore with condolences.

FOXNews.com - Coffee May Prevent Liver Cancer

Study: Coffee May Prevent Liver Cancer:

"Together, the studies included 2,260 people with liver cancer and nearly 240,000 people without liver cancer. Participants lived in Greece, Italy, or Japan.

Participants reported their coffee-drinking habits. The data show that coffee drinkers were 41percent less likely to have been diagnosed with liver cancer than people who don't drink coffee.

For every daily cup of coffee people drank, their odds of having been diagnosed with liver cancer dropped by 23 percent, compared with people who never drink coffee."

Too bad I don't drink coffee. Maybe diet coke has similar cancer fighting power? If so, I'm really set ;)

Bear Market! Sell! Sell! Sell!

A Dash of Insight: Fundamentals and the Market:

"What has happened in the last week has little to do with the valuation of most stocks. We find many attractive buys on our 'watch list', and we have added to our positions."

I was trying to be a little funny with the title of this post. Yes, the past week has seen my portfolio diminish in value by a substantial amount. Yes, this has made the little gremlin of fear that lurks deep in the dark crevices of my mid-brain come clawing to the forefront demanding that I liquidate my stocks and put my savings in something less volatile.

But no, I don't put much stock in those who claim the stock market has reached a top. In the long run, as a wise and wealthy investor has noted, the stock market is a weighing machine: the price of a stock is a function of how much money a company earns. period, full-stop, end of story. American businesses are earning record amounts of money, and projected earnings are strong. Inflation is relatively tame. And most importantly the price of stocks remains low relative to bonds (see the Fed Model).

So that's how I see it. I regard this recent sell-off as a temporary blip, and I expect the market will back above 14000 before the end of the year. I've added to my equity positions and I will continue to buy into this bear market until my cash reserves run out or the market rebounds, whichever occurs first.